jueves, 4 de octubre de 2012

¿Pepsi bye?

La poca información disponible se presta para los rumores…

Durante el proceso de investigación de un reporte sobre el mercado de alimentos y bebidas en la región que estoy elaborando me encontré con que en el medio está circulando el rumor de que la empresa Cabcorp podría ser adquirida por otro grupo regional. No me pude resistir a la oportunidad de investigar un poco ese tema.

Una de las desgracias de nuestro país es que no se ha desarrollado un mercado de capitales, por lo que la mayor parte de la información de las empresas se maneja en el más estricto secreto. De ahí que es poca la información públicamente disponible y ello se presta para rumores y especulaciones. En el caso de Cabcorp, me pareció una oportunidad única para investigar, ya que debido a la emisión de bonos en los mercados internacionales que hizo este año, algo de información se puede obtener de fuentes públicas, así como de los análisis que realizan las empresas calificadoras. Aun así, no es tan fácil investigar como en los mercados desarrollados, pero algo encontré.

La pregunta del millón es: ¿por qué alguien querría comprar una empresa como Cabcorp? Hice un estudio más elaborado para tratar de responderla, que lo encuentra aquí, pero por razones de espacio, hago aquí un breve resumen.

Desde hace más de una década la empresa se ha dedicado a expandir sus operaciones, tanto en mercados como en portafolio de marcas. Una de las decisiones cruciales, desde mi punto de vista, fue la alianza con PepsicoAmericas en el 2009, por medio de la cual obtuvo la distribución para Puerto Rico y el Caribe, a cambio del 18% de las acciones del grupo. Unos meses después Pepsico compró PepsicoAmericas, y Cabcorp se encontró con que su nuevo socio era la casa matriz.

La expansión ha continuado y este año compraron el control del Grupo Tesalia, el embotellador de Pepsi para Ecuador, iniciando su incursión en Sudamérica.

Sin embargo, no todo es un lecho de rosas y la expansión ha conllevado, por un lado, bastante apalancamiento financiero, y por el otro, incrementos en los costos, lo que ha puesto a la empresa en una posición vulnerable financieramente hablando. Si a ello se le añaden algunas otras variables como los cambios de conducta de los consumidores, la crisis financiera, la volatilidad en los precios de las materias primas y, por si no fuera suficiente, el riesgo inherente de los países de la región, especialmente con sus siempre cambiantes normas fiscales, hacen que la transacción pueda ser un tanto riesgosa.

Una vista rápida a algunos de los resúmenes financieros de Cabcorp siembra suficientes dudas sobre el futuro de un negocio interesante pero que tiene riesgos que deben ser tomados en cuenta. La paradoja es que las acciones que han tomado para expandir sus operaciones, por un lado la vuelven poco atractiva para la compra, si se toman en cuenta solo los factores financieros, pero por el otro lado la vuelve vulnerable ante algún comprador con los suficientes recursos y visión como para seguir el proceso de expansión por Sudamérica.

¿Se venderá Cabcorp? La respuesta es una moneda al aire, de la que quién sabe cuándo nos enteraremos del resultado, por la misma secretividad.

Artículo publicado en Prensa Libre el jueves 4 de octubre de 2,012.

55 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

Suena interesante, quizá el no medir las consecuencias de los crecimientos desmedidos!

Anónimo dijo...

No sera pura Guerra entre Cabcorp y La Cerve

Anónimo dijo...

Los dos comentarios tienen su punto, creo que la arrogancia del poder les impidio ver el horizonte, en Guatemala compraron 2 empresas que se suponia serian afines a su negocio, pero resulto que no pueden usar su musculo de distribucion, por lo consiguiente no fueron compras "inteligentes" y se supo que andaban con "chequera en mano" tratando de comprar empresas a base de ofertas agresivas economicas.

La guerra entre las familias Castillo tiene su rato, los rumores, cada vez mas frecuentes, de una oferta de comprar la Cerveceria, por otra Cervecera de peso mundial asociada a Cabcorp tiene sus "calentones" cada vez que reunen a los accionistas.

No estaria lejos el escenario, ni tampoco descabellado, que fuera Ambev el comprador de Cabcorp, ya son socios y hacerse con el control total les daria fuerza en la distribucion en varios paises con poder de desicion, lo que podria ser una ventaja en su puja por comprar a la Cerveceria CA.

Como dicen en el beisbol, "la bola pica y se extiende".

Anónimo dijo...

Es interesante, nunca falta el de la teoría de conspiración y de guerras. Para es interesante que esto va con datos de empresas de respetable trayectoria.

Es posible que se negligencia o mal manejo financiero el que pone a Cabcorp en esta posición.

Anónimo dijo...

Es evidente que de finanzas, fusiones y adquisiciones, mercados de deuda internacionales y de empresas Jorge Jacobs es un completo ignorante. La columna demuestra o una falta de respeto hacia la inteligencia de los guatemaltecos o simplemente un alto nivel de ignoracia y desconocimiento de su parte.

La opinion de Jorge no hace sentido debido a las siguientes razones:

A. El rating de las agencias calificadoras es identico al del pais (guatemala). Estas calificaciones miden y consideran todos los factores financieros de una empresa cuando emiten la calificacion, incluyendo niveles de deuda. Para una empresa el calificar igual que el pais es la nota mas alta que puede sacar.

B. Es normal para las empresas financear crecimiento a traves de deuda. Cualquier persona con un conocimiento basico de finanzas te diria que un apalancamiento bien manejado aumenta el retorno sobre capital.

C. Existen varios indicadores financieros disenados para medir "que tan sano es el nivel de una compania". En este caso cualquier analisis comparativo con empresas en la industria en EEUU y otros paises demuestra que estos niveles de deuda son mucho mas bajos que la media de las empresas comparables.

Creo que es obligacion de todos los guatemaltecos que fomentemos mediante nuestras opinones el periodismo responsable e inteligente. Alejando a periodistas que buscan crear un nombre a traves del senciasionalismo, el chisme, publicaciones ignorantes sin fundamentos o fuera de contexto y opiniones ignorantes.

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Anónimo dijo...

A. ¿Que rating tiene Cabcorp?

B. Un Apalancamiento bien manejado aumenta el retorno sobre capital, ¿A tomado Cabcorp las decisiones correctas al momento de adquirir deudas?

C. Que nivel de madurez tiene Cabcorp.

Puede que valga la pena ser adquirir esta empresa si los compradores toman en cuenta estos y otros factores.

Beatriz dijo...

Que triste que alguien que se ha ganado prestigio ahora colabore creando rumores y especulaciones. Al ver lo irresponsable que ha sido con este artículo realmente me lleva a poner en duda cualquier otra cosa que pudiera publicar...

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La pepsi nunca ha sido un buen negocio.

Anónimo dijo...

Excelente reportaje!
Los rumores llegan mucho mas lejos que solamente los problemas financieros serios que estan teniendo.

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